2020年全球奢侈品展望报告（18页）

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 2

Interwoven: Wealth and Luxury Market Growth 3

The Global Luxury City Index 7 Affinity for Luxury – City Ranking 10 Affinity for luxury – UHNW Profiles 13

Archetypes by Luxury Good Ownership 16 Changing Luxury Preferences 19 Methodology 21

About Wealth-X 22

WEALTH-X GLOBAL LUXURY OUTLOOK 2020: A WORLD OF CHANGING PREFERENCES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 THE GROWTH OF WEALTH AND THE GLOBAL LUXURY MARKET ARE INTER

1

In the 15 years running up to 2020, the world’s wealthy population grew in size almost continuously. As wealth grew, so too did the world of luxury. The coronavirus pandemic, however, has brought years of industry growth to a halt. Still, many among the wealthy – particularly the ultra wealthy – have continued to spend on luxury during 2020, albeit in a different way.



NEW YORK LEADS OUR GLOBAL LUXURY CITY INDEX, FOLLOWED BY TOKYO AND HONG KONG.

2 Our index draws out the top 15 cities where wealth and luxury meet. Boasting more wealthy individuals than any other location in the world, the Big Apple is truly the city of

2

rich – it also performs strongly in the index for its luxury retail footprint and luxury lifestyle opportunities.

3 4 ASIA DOMINATES THE TOP 15 RANKING WITH

3

4

At the regional level, Asia accounts for eight cities, followed by North America (with five cities, all of them in the US). The luxury sector has grown enormously over the past two decades across Asia, with cities in China, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan among the top 15.

The US remains the country with the highest number of cities attractive for luxury.

5 6 UHNW OWNERS OF PRIVATE JETS, YACHTS OR ART COLLECTIONS ARE DIFFERENT FROM ONE

5

6

Private jet owners tend to be male, less wealthy and comparatively younger than the other two cohorts on account of many being in the business-building stage of their lives. Private yacht owners show the highest average net worth, while most art collectors are over 70 and

show a much higher representation of women, at 22%.

AGE, GENDER AND WEALTH SOURCE MATTER WHEN IT COMES TO INDIVIDUALS’ AFFINITY FOR LUXURY.

The level of propensity to own luxury assets changes according to different characteristics of the ultra high net worth (UHNW) population. At a high level of affinity, UHNW women show a slightly greater propensity than men, as do those who have inherited their wealth compared with the self-made. The difference is particularly marked for people aged

50 to 70.

THE PANDEMIC IS CHANGING THE LUXURY HABITS OF THE WEALTHY.

The growth of online shopping and delivery, enabling luxury services to be provided in the privacy of the wealthy’s homes, will continue, while intangible assets – namely

additional passports and on-demand healthcare – will remain a priority. To prosper in such times, luxury brands must be flexible, quick moving and as attentive as ever to the changing demands of their clientele.

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade, Wealth-X has published reports on a variety of luxury assets, ranging from yachts and private jets to high-end real estate. In Wealth-X's new Global Luxury Outlook 2020: A World of Changing Preferences, we take a holistic view of the world of luxury, seeing it as its own category that includes luxury goods and lifestyle services, fine art, private jets, yachts, cars, travel, real estate and other assets.

This report sheds light on how wealthy individuals approach luxury in their lives and how this is changing – and we examine the many differences among the wealthy that exist under these two themes. While we define a ‘wealthy’ individual as someone who has at least $1m in net worth, our analysis is mostly shown across the two tiers of wealth within our primary focus: VHNW ($5m to $30m) and UHNW ($30m and above). This report also occasionally delineates among the UHNW tier, which is significant when considering the ownership of large-ticket items such as private jets and yachts.

We first explore the interlocked relationship between wealth growth and the development of the luxury goods and services industry. No discussion can be complete, however, without touching on how the Covid-19 pandemic has brought much of

the luxury industry to a standstill and how it will continue to have a profound effect.

From customer relationship management to marketing strategies and personalized solutions, data is becoming increasingly important to luxury brands around the world. We provide insight on the wealthy, not only at a country and city level but also at the cohort and product level, which demonstrates the value of understanding the intricacies of your specific market metrics.

Our Global Luxury City Index benchmarks cities on specific criteria to find the world’s top 15 cities where wealth, luxury retail and a luxury lifestyle are most deeply entwined. We then dig a little deeper, analyzing the wealthy population’s affinity for luxury, gaining an insight into how the level of propensity to own luxury assets varies among cities and according to certain key characteristics such as wealth source, gender and age.

Via a study of archetypes, we also find that there are characteristic differences between the ultra wealthy individuals who purchase private jets, those who buy yachts and those who collect fine art. Finally, we take a look at how the wealthy’s luxury preferences are changing in these extraordinary times.

Wealth-X’s Global Luxury Outlook 2020: A World of Changing Preferences provides exclusive insights on the intersection between luxury and wealth, making it an essential read for any provider looking to prospect for, target and engage with the wealthy.

KEY DEFINITIONS

Very high net worth (VHNW) individuals

Those with a net worth of $5m-$30m

Ultra high net worth (UHNW) individuals

Those with a net worth of $30m+ (also referred to as the ‘ultra wealthy’)

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank the following individuals (listed alphabetically) for their valuable contributions to our research, adding both texture and deeper insight:

Alistair Brown | CEO, Alistair Brown International Real Estate

Winston Chesterfield | Principal, Barton

Jaclyn Sienna India | CEO, Sienna Charles

INTERWOVEN: WEALTH AND LUXURY MARKET GROWTH

In the 15 years running up to 2020, the world’s wealthy population grew in size almost continuously. The number of global millionaires (those with $1m+ in net worth) doubled over the 2005-2019 period to more than 25 million individuals. This increase was propelled by strong economic growth in Asia and other emerging economies, continued urbanization, transformative advances in digitization (led by the US tech giants) and, perhaps most of all, by a period of unprecedented liquidity from global central banks.

As wealth grew, so too did the world of luxury. The global luxury market has undergone dramatic change, not only in size – expanding from an estimated €147bn in 2005 to

€1.3trn in 20191 – but also in the breadth of services now offered by a more diverse range of providers, both large and small. Historically the preserve of the VHNW and those with even greater wealth, luxury products and amenities have become far more ubiquitous.

INTERLOCKED: WEALTH AND GLOBAL LUXURY SPEND

Global luxury market (€bn) Number of individuals with a net worth of $1m+

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

20050

2005

30,000,000

THE GROWTH OF

THE GROWTH OF THE GLOBAL LUXURY MARKET IS HEAVILY TIED TO GROWTH IN WEALTH

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

2006200720082009201020112012

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Note: Luxury market spend figures are based on estimates. Sources: Wealth-X; Bain & Company

Source: Bain & Company (includes personal luxury goods, luxury cars, luxury hospitality, fine wines and spirits, gourmet food and fine dining, high-end furniture and housewares, fine art, private jets, yachts and luxury cruises).

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INTERWOVEN: WEALTH AND LUXURY MARKET GROWTH

The huge expansion of the luxury sector in China and other emerging markets over the past decade shows the inextricable relationship between the demand for luxury items and the trajectory of wealth. In fact, the Asia region is now home to more wealthy individuals than Europe, though North America (led by the US) still remains the dominant region for global wealth, accounting for almost 40% of all VHNW and UHNW individuals. Moreover, although the luxury market in China and other parts of Asia has enjoyed robust growth, Europe and North America are still very much the leading global centers of luxury consumption, accounting for a



WEALTH TIER

dominant share. In part, this reflects strong growth in spending by Chinese consumers abroad across all of the world’s major luxury goods markets over the past decade.

A SNAPSHOT OF THE WEALTHY AROUND THE WORLD

NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS BY WEALTH TIER 2019*



EUROPE



WORLD

VHNW

$5m-$30m

2,668,240

UHNW

$30m+

291,470

NORTH AMERICA

ASIA

678,370 78,700



MIDDLE EAST

1,045,580

105,130

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN



AFRICA



73,680



9,770

723,790 83,260

PACIFIC

THE HUGE EXPANSION OF THE LUXURY SECTOR IN CHINA AND OTHER EMERGING MARKETS SHOWS THE

INEXTRICABLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DEMAND FOR LUXURY ITEMS AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WEALTH.



74,590

8,080

24,800 2,690



47,430 3,840

*Data is likely to undergo some revision following the publication of our World Ultra Wealth Report 2020.

Note: Population numbers are rounded to the nearest 10. VHNW stands for very high net worth; UHNW stands for ultra high net worth. The size of the UHNW and VHNW circles are comparable to their own wealth tier, not to each other.

Source: Wealth-X

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INTERWOVEN: WEALTH AND LUXURY MARKET GROWTH

GROWTH HALTED BY COVID-19

The coronavirus pandemic, however, has brought years of industry growth to a halt. Buffeted by uncertainty and sudden declines across a range of wealth portfolios, not to mention the effects of national lockdowns and changing consumer behavior on the retail, travel and lifestyle markets, the vast majority of industry players are facing huge challenges to their businesses and the luxury sector is being transformed profoundly.

Yet the global nature of these difficult conditions masks significant divergence among individuals. Many among the wealthy – particularly the ultra wealthy – have continued to spend on luxury during 2020 but have been doing this differently since the pandemic took hold. With high-end travel and restaurants largely unavailable, luxury services are increasingly being offered to the wealthy in their own homes.

“With their homes worth in the millions and designed exactly the way they want them, the wealthy haven’t had the same sense of urgency to leave them.”

Jaclyn Sienna India, CEO, Sienna Charles

Restaurants are offering dine-at-home options and companies are providing home delivery of ingredients for the wealthy’s private chefs to use. Real-estate agents are seeing demand spiral for high-end properties that are closer to nature and offer security and safety. Auction houses have pivoted towards online auctions and are reporting robust demand.2 Interest has grown in securing additional passports for, or residency

of, countries considered more secure. Meanwhile, the private jet market has not been nearly as badly hit as the commercial airline industry. Private aviation started picking up towards the middle of the year, attracting new types of customers seeking to reduce the number of touchpoints that could be contaminated by the virus. In the process of adjusting to this new normal, the wealthy’s preferences and demands are altering in ways that will influence on the luxury industry for many years to come (see Changing Luxury Preferences).

MANY OF THE ULTRA WEALTHY HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEND ON LUXURY DURING 2020, BUT HAVE BEEN DOING SO DIFFERENTLY.

Source: Financial Times

THE GLOBAL LUXURY CITY INDEX

What are the premier cities where wealth and luxury meet? Our Global Luxury City Index draws out the top 15 such cities around the globe. The index benchmarks cities on different criteria to find the locations where wealth, high-end retail and a luxury lifestyle come together.

In compiling the index, we have incorporated three main themes, each comprising a category: the level and growth dynamics of wealth; the development of the luxury retail market; and luxury lifestyle.

CATEGORIES AND INDICATORS

High-end

High-end restaurants

Five-star hotels

Casinos

UHNW population and five-year forecast

VHNW population and five-year forecast

LUXURY LIFESTYLE

DEVELOPMENT OF THE LUXURY RETAIL MARKET

Luxury store footprint - fashion (10 brands)

Luxury store footprint - watches and jewelery

(nine brands)

WEALTH

Note: For further details of the index’s methodology, please see the Methodology section. Source: Publicly available information and Wealth-X data and analysis.

Each category comprises a number of indicators. These encompass key city metrics such as the current size of (and five-year forecast for) the UHNW and VHNW populations; the store footprint of the world’s foremost luxury fashion, watch and jewelry brands; and the number of high-end restaurants, five-star hotels and casinos. Each indicator is scored, with a weighted average of scores across the three categories giving a single overall score and city rank.

The index ranks a total of 50 cities, selected on the basis of the size of their wealthy populations. Only those cities that score relatively highly in all three categories make it into the top 15.

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THE GLOBAL LUXURY INDEX

GLOBAL LUXURY CITY INDEX

City/rank



Overall score (out of 100)

BELOW WE HIGHLIGHT THE MOST NOTABLE FINDINGS:

New York leads our Global Luxury City Index. Boasting more wealthy individuals than any other city in the world, the Big Apple is truly the city of the rich. New York also performs strongly in the index for its luxury retail footprint and particularly for its luxury

New York 1

Tokyo 2

Hong Kong* 3

London 4

Paris 5

Singapore 736Seoul

Singapore 7

36

Seoul 8

34

Osaka 9

32

Shanghai 10

31

Chicago 11

29

Beijing 12

29

Washington DC 13

29

San Francisco 14

28

Taipei 15

26

 70

67

67

62

62

59

59

56

56

40

40

lifestyle, having the highest number of five-star hotels and luxury casinos. Despite an uncertain political and economic environment in the US, the city’s wealthy population is forecast to grow steadily over the next five years, maintaining New York’s status as a world-leading luxury destination.

Tokyo tracks in second place, followed by Hong Kong. The Japanese capital is arguably the leading city in which to experience luxury culture. With the largest number of high- end restaurants and the biggest presence of luxury fashion stores globally, Tokyo is unique. It is also a significant wealth market, with the second highest population of VHNW individuals (after New York) and the third highest UHNW population (after New York and Hong Kong). Meanwhile, Hong Kong ranks third in our index, supported by

its large number of wealthy individuals (Hong Kong has the highest number of UHNW individuals in Asia and the second highest globally) and also because of its options for luxury shopping, particularly for watches and jewelry.

London ranks fourth, narrowly ahead of Paris. With robust wealthy populations, these two major European cities have a long history as luxury centers. Despite political and economic uncertainties, the strong, diverse cultures these cities offer and their positions as wealth and financial hubs continue to make them hugely attractive to the wealthy.

Both cities also perform strongly in terms of luxury experience indicators, such as the number of high-end facilities and luxury stores.

Note: Chicago, Beijing and Washington DC are in 11th, 12th and 13th place respectively due to decimal differences. The total score is the weighted average of city scores (between 0 and 100) for each of the three categories: wealth, development of the luxury retail market and luxury lifestyle. Cities are defined on the basis of urban agglomerations and metropolitan (metro) areas, which include the built-up areas outside the administrative core. For example, New York includes New York City, Newark and Jersey City. Globally comparable city-level data is not available; as such, to ensure comparability is as precise as possible, we have sourced consistent metro- and urban-level population and GDP data. City definitions are from Oxford Economics. For further details of the index's methodology, please see the Methodology section.

*Hong Kong is a semi-autonomous, special administrative region of China. Source: Wealth-X 2020

At the regional level, Asia dominates the top 15 ranking (with eight cities), followed by North America (with five cities, all of them in the US). Enjoying relatively the strongest financial and economic growth in the past two decades, Asia emerges as the region with the highest number of cities among the top 15. The rich and diverse cultures Asian cities offer contributes to their attractiveness as luxury hubs. The US, with five cities in the top 15, remains the country with the highest number of attractive luxury markets. Only two European cities make it into the top 15, affected mainly by weaker increases in wealthy populations and their wealth.

China’s main cities, Shanghai and Beijing, feature at 10th and 12th place respectively, despite having a smaller number of wealthy individuals than many lower-ranked cities. Shanghai and Beijing’s position as financial and business hubs in the second biggest global wealth market (China) makes them attractive for luxury presence. Even though less than 20% of the wealthy Chinese population is based in these two cities, many wealthy individuals from China and overseas visit these cities frequently. Furthermore, the wealthy populations of these cities are expected to achieve among the fastest growth globally in the next five years.

ASIA DOMINATES THE TOP 15 RANKING WITH EIGHT CITIES.

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AFFINITY FOR LUXURY

— CITY RANKING

While our Global Luxury City Index3 provides insights from a top-down and generalist point of view, there is also value in understanding cities at a more granular level when it comes to how their ultra wealthy populations view and consume luxury. By analyzing affinity for luxury, we can understand the level of propensity that a city’s ultra wealthy population has for owning luxury assets.

We examine ‘high’ and ‘medium’ affinity for luxury across two tiers of wealth among the ultra wealthy: those with $30m to $100m in net worth and those with $100m+.

We classify the levels of affinity for luxury based on a wealthy individual’s ownership of ‘major’ luxury assets, such as a private jet, yacht or art collection, and/or their ownership of ‘other’ luxury assets, such as real estate, antiques, prestige cars and other vehicles, horses, wine, watches/jewelry or a sports team. The precise criteria are outlined in the table below.

Source: Wealth-X 2020CRITERIA FOR GAUGING LEVEL OF AFFINITY FOR LUXURY (MUST FULFILL ONE OR

Source: Wealth-X 2020

HIGH

(Must own)

MEDIUM

(Must own)

Two or more 'major' luxury assets

One 'major' luxury asset and one 'other'

luxury asset

OR

OR

One 'major' luxury asset and two 'other'

luxury assets

Two 'other' luxury assets

OR

Three or more 'other' luxury assets

Note: 'Major' luxury assets are considered to be private jets, yachts or an art collection, each worth a significant value.

'Other' luxury assets are considered to be real estate, antiques, prestige cars and other vehicles, horses, wine, watches/jewelry or a sports team, each worth a significant value.

The index comprises generalist luxury indicators. We advise using a